Every year OSBM prepares two types of population estimates for every municipality in North Carolina:
The municipalities play a key role in building these estimates by providing OSBM with updated information and data on:
These surveys are an important input for our population estimates. We collect information from a variety of different sources, including local governments. These surveys are one way for us to make sure our data is as current as possible and the information provided is incorporated within our demographic estimation models.
In addition to data submitted by the municipalities, the municipal population estimates prepared by OSBM are based, in part, on that year’s state and county population estimates. The foundations for the county estimates are the decennial census and any official corrections made to the decennial census. The municipal population estimates are likewise developed from the previous decennial census and any official corrections made to it.
The Demographic and Economic Analysis section of the Office of State Budget and Management produces population estimates that are used by other state agencies to distribute state-shared revenues to local governments. The Demographic and Economic Analysis section prepares and disseminates standard and certified municipal population estimates and provisional and certified county population estimates on a yearly basis. These population estimates are also used for planning purposes by local and state governments, nonprofits and businesses.
G.S. 143C-2-2 requires OSBM to “coordinate the efforts of governmental agencies to collect, disseminate, and analyze economic, demographic and social statistics pertinent to State budgeting.” This includes a requirement that OSBM “prepare and release the official demographic and economic estimates and projections for the State.”
Chapter 9 of The Office of State Budget and Management Budget Manual provides more detail about the population estimates program.
We are required by statute to provide certified municipal population estimates to the North Carolina Department of Revenue and the North Carolina Department of Transportation by September 15th of each year so that they may distribute funds to local governments. We collect information from all 100 counties and 551 municipalities within North Carolina, thus this deadline is set so that we have enough time to review and verify the information that we receive. In addition, OSBM considers appeals for errors caused by erroneous annexation data after the certified numbers are released ONLY if the boundary and annexation information has been submitted by July 23, 2020(see Section 9.8, What is the Appeals Process? of the OSBM Budget Manual for more information about the appeals process).
We must receive the information requested in these surveys by July 23, 2021 so that we can review and verify the data before including it in our population estimates models. If you have missed this deadline, go ahead and complete the surveys and submit them as soon as possible. We cannot guarantee that they will be included within the 2021 population estimates, but the information will be used in 2022.
Yes. We will prepare “Provisional Estimates” before the final estimates are certified. We will e-mail the point of contact for you municipality/county at the end of August. You will then be able login to see and review the provisional population estimates to identify any potential errors or omissions in the survey data provided.
The first set of population estimates that will utilize information from the 2020 Census will be the July 1, 2020 population estimates that will be published in the fall of 2021. We will use the April 1, 2020 Census counts to evaluate and adjust our current population estimate models. The new models and data will be used to estimate municipal and county populations after 2020. A complete count of your municipal or county population is a critical component of your population estimates.
For the boundary and annexation survey, we ask for information on annexations and detachments and other boundary changes effective through July 1, 2021. We collect information on annexations and detachments for two main reasons:
“Annexation” refers to a land area that has been fully incorporated into an existing municipality. Attempted annexations that are under appeal or are pending are not included.
No. Only those annexations that have been successfully completed should be reported. Do NOT include those that are under appeal or are pending.
“Boundary Change” means any change in a municipality’s boundaries not including annexations and detachments.
“Detachment” means a land area that was previously part of an incorporated municipality but that has since been removed.
No. Please include ALL annexations and detachments, even if there is no population or occupied housing units within an annexation/detachment. Part of our models utilize population density and land area in order to estimate population for the whole municipality.
If it will be easier for you to track the development over time, you can break up the annexation into several sub-parts (naming it in such a way that you can track the full annexation). For an example, for the Scurry Development annexation with 1,000 occupied housing units for Carolinaville, you can break it down to 4 separate units: Scurry Development 1 (500 HUs). Scurry Development 2 (100 HUs), Scurry Development 3 (0 HUs), and Scurry Development 4 (400 HUs). If you wish, you can also upload a map of the annexation.
Add the annexation/detachment and include the annexation/detachment date. It will be included in our population estimates going forward.
No, the annexations that occurred prior to January 2, 2020 are included within our model using another method. These historical annexations would have been included within your total land area for the 2020 Census.
No. You do not need to send us the ordinance. By certifying and submitting the survey, you are acknowledging that the information on annexations and detachments is complete. However, you are required to submit the annexation to the Secretary of State’s office.
You may view the annexations previously filed with the Secretary of State Land Records Division. The Secretary of State will accept any final annexation not previously filed. Questions regarding annexation filing with the Secretary of State should be directed to John Bridgers, firstname.lastname@example.org, 919-807-2207.
Yes. An actual count of occupied housing units in annexed areas must be provided and should not include seasonal or vacant units. An actual count of people in the annexed area may also be supplied. DO NOT estimate the population; if the actual count is not available, the Office of State Budget and Management will estimate the number.
For older annexations (those occurring between January 2, 2020 and July 1, 2021), please update the count and count date if new occupied housing units have been added to the annexation. Include only housing units occupied by full-time residents.
If there is no link to the boundary and annexation survey, then we do not have record of any annexations, detachments or other boundary changes for your area that occurred after January 2, 2020. If this is incorrect, please contact State.Demographer@osbm.nc.gov and we will add a survey for you to complete.
By certifying the boundary and annexation survey, you are acknowledging that you have reviewed the annexation data that we have reported and either made no changes or added information (new annexations/detachments or occupied housing and population counts) and that the information is correct to the best of your knowledge.
The purpose of this survey is to collect data on new residential construction and mobile homes in order to estimate population on the basis of the change in housing units, one of our methods for estimating population change.
We prefer that you report building permits if you collect data for both. However, you have the option to report either building permits or certificates of occupancy.
Your county will also receive a new residential construction and mobile home survey. You do not have to report building permits/certificates of occupancy for your municipality as long as your county has agreed to report the information for you. Please consult with your county to make sure that information for your municipality is reported.
For our purposes, modular housing is classified as a single-family housing unit. Include any modular housing unit counts within your single-family housing unit category counts.
Please include a count of the number of housing units within the multi-family structure. For the purposes of this survey, all units designed to be private living quarters (i.e., not group quarters facilities) should be counted as residences.
No. Please include permits for new construction only.
Yes. Include counts of building permits for any new residential housing units, including seasonal housing units. Do not include permits for hotels/motels.
There is a separate question about mobile homes. Do not include those counts in your single-family or multifamily numbers.
For this survey, a mobile home is defined as a movable dwelling, 8 feet or more wide and 40 feet or more long, designed to be towed on its own chassis, with transportation gear integral to the unit when it leaves the factory, and without need of a permanent foundation. These include multi-wides and expandable manufactured homes, but not modular housing.
By certifying the new residential and mobile home survey, you are acknowledging that you have completed the survey and that the information is correct to the best of your knowledge.
The purpose of the group quarters survey is to collect (or verify) the information about group quarters populations in municipalities and unincorporated areas. The information is used to account for “special populations.” The factors that affect change in special populations (such as dorm and prison populations) are usually different than those for non-group quarters population.
A group quarters is a place where people live or stay, in a group living arrangement, that is owned or managed by an entity or organization providing housing and/or services for the residents.
This is not a typical household-type living arrangement. These services may include custodial or medical care as well as other types of assistance, and residency is commonly restricted to those receiving these services. People living in group quarters are usually not related to each other.
Group quarters include such places as college residence halls, residential treatment centers, skilled nursing facilities, group homes, military barracks, correctional facilities, and workers’ dormitories.
Institutional group quarters are facilities that house those who are primarily ineligible, unable, or unlikely to participate in the labor force while resident. The institutionalized population is the population residing in institutional group quarters such as adult correctional facilities, juvenile facilities, skilled-nursing facilities, and other institutional facilities such as mental (psychiatric) hospitals and in-patient hospice facilities. The facility types under this category include:
Noninstitutional group quarters are facilities that house those who are primarily eligible, able, or likely to participate in the labor force while resident. The nonistitutionalized population lives in noninstitutional group quarters such as college/university student housing, military quarters, and other noninstitutional group quarters such as emergency and transitional shelters for people experiencing homelessness and group homes. The facility types under this category include:
See https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/tech_docs/group_definitions/2010GQ_Definitions.pdf for detailed descriptions of these different types.
No, there is no error. We have updated our facility type codes to match those used by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Most municipalities and counties will not need to change anything in the Group Quarters survey. However, we do ask that you review and note any changes in facility names. In addition, please add any new facilities that have been added to your jurisdiction – including those that have been annexed. Please certify that you have either reviewed the data or have made any changes before saving and submitting your survey (the certification button is on the lower left-hand corner of the survey).
Please supply a population count for that facility as of July 2021. If you cannot obtain a population count for the facility, leave that field blank. Include only the actual population count – NOT the capacity for the facility.
There is no legal requirement for providing facility population numbers. However, for our annual population estimates, it is important that the population of "group quarters" facilities (shared living areas such as dormitories, nursing homes and group homes) are accurately counted. This helps us make sure that every North Carolinian is counted, which in turn provides better services to people and communities. We use this information only for population estimates.
In general, no. House parents typically live separately from other occupants and have direct access to the outside from their living quarters, thus their living quarters constitute a housing unit.
If there is no link to the group quarters survey, then we do not have record of any group quarters facilities for your area. If this is incorrect, please contact State.Demographer@osbm.nc.gov and we will add a survey for you to complete.
While jails are considered group quarters facilities, in most cases, inmates spend a short amount of time (less than six months) within the jail. They are therefore counted elsewhere (in their usual place of residence). If, however, your jail contracts with others to hold prison inmates (which typically are held for a longer period of time), please contact our office so that we can review your particular situation.
No. In general, assisted living centers and adult care homes are not considered group quarters facilities. We use the same definitions of group quarters facilities as those used by the US Census Bureau. We obtain counts of residents of licensed nursing home facilities from the North Carolina Department of Heath Service Regulation.
By certifying the survey, you are acknowledging that you have reviewed the group quarters data that we have collected and either made no changes or added information (facility name change, new facilities, annexation of facilities, population counts, etc.) and that the information is correct to the best of your knowledge.